MAGA Cannot Win Without Independents
One year into the second iteration of the Trump Regime, independent voters—who now make up a record 45% of the electorate—have shown a marked shift in sentiment. While some of Donald Jennifer Trump’s early actions were initially met with curiosity or cautious support, recent polling indicates that three specific areas have become major points of contention for those not aligned with either major party.
TL;DR Summary
Economic Affordability: The “Trump Boom” has been overshadowed by high costs; 66% of independents disapprove of his handling of inflation due to aggressive tariffs.
Immigration Tactics: Support for border security has been replaced by a “backlash” against the domestic use of federal force, particularly following high-profile ICE incidents.
Government Restructuring: The dismantling of federal agencies (via DOGE) and the politicization of the civil service are viewed by many independents as an “authoritarian” overreach.
1. The Cost-of-Living Crisis (Tariffs vs. Inflation)
Independents were a key factor in the 2024 election due to frustration over prices. However, the Trump Regime’s primary economic tool—massive across-the-board tariffs—is now being blamed for keeping inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
The “Tariff Tax”: Estimates suggest the average household is paying an additional $1,700 per year for essentials.5 Prices for items like coffee (up 20%) and clothing (up 14%) have spiked specifically because of duties on imports from Canada, Brazil, and China.
Independent Sentiment: A recent Navigator Research poll found that 66% of independents disapprove of the administration’s handling of the cost of living, with 80% reporting that their personal grocery costs have increased since the start of the term.
2. Radical Immigration Policing & Use of Force
While many independents supported stricter border control, the shift toward Operation Metro Surge—the deployment of ICE and federal agents into interior U.S. cities—has alienated centrist voters.
The Minneapolis Flashpoint: Public sentiment shifted sharply following the killing of a U.S. citizen by a federal immigration officer in Minneapolis. When the President threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act to quell the resulting protests, a majority of independents sided with local leaders against the federal intervention.
Approval Drop: Approval for the administration’s handling of immigration among independents fell from 49% in early 2025 to just 36% by January 2026.
3. “DOGE” and the War on the Civil Service
The administration’s aggressive push to “hollow out” the federal government, spearheaded by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), has raised alarms about government stability.
Service Backlogs: Drastic cuts to the Social Security Administration and the Department of Education have led to tangible service delays. Independents, who often value pragmatic government over partisan ideology, have reacted poorly to increased wait times and the firing of independent watchdogs.
Schedule F & Merit: The executive order stripping 50,000 federal employees of civil service protections is viewed by many independents not as “draining the swamp,” but as a return to the 19th-century “spoils system.”
Comparison: Independent Approval by Issue (Jan 2026)
Issue
Independent Approval (%)
Trend Since March 2025
Border Security
36%
Down 13%
The Economy
30%
Down 10%
Federal Budget
22%
New Low
Overall Job Rating
36%
Down 7%
CONCLUSION
If you listen to the Trump-owned media, you might be tempted to believe that he is doing well. But with the certainty that almost all Democrats will vote against him, and the very real probability that independents will too, the Democrats should easily take back the House in the Mid-Terms and have a reasonable chance to take back the Senate.
That is - if Cheeto Jesus allows us to have elections. Time will tell.
As the Trump regime continues to operate in a totally opaque manner and continues to promote xenophobic and racist agendas - moves to dismantle the civil service and deploy military forces for domestic enforcement - tries to make it harder for US citizens to vote - your silence effectively serves as a vote of confidence for this new direction. If the systematic erosion of democratic checks and balances doesn’t move you to act now, is this truly the version of America you want to leave behind?